Russia’s War Against Ukraine [Current Wars and Perspectives on Peace]

Negotiations, Scenarios and the Human Cost of Displacement

Speaker: Inna Supac
Language: English
Format: Lecture

Abstract

Ukraine is in its fifth year of ongoing full-scale war. In 2025, the Russian Federation intensified its attacks, causing widespread destruction, a 31% rise in civilian casualties compared to 2024 and new displacement, making it the deadliest year for civilians since 2022. Large-scale missile and air strikes continue to systematically target energy and transport infrastructure, causing nationwide blackouts, water shortages and supply disruptions. Ukrainian authorities are bracing for another extremely difficult winter. At the same time, approximately 3.8 million people remain internally displaced within Ukraine and 5.6 million displaced abroad.

Meanwhile, the next round of peace talks is scheduled for October 2026 in a trilateral format. How have the conditions for negotiations evolved since 2022? Are they focused on a ceasefire or a sustainable long-term peace? What are the positions of Ukraine, Russia and the US? What realistic scenarios could shape the further course of the war? And how do aspirations and the ongoing uncertainty shape the future plans of Ukrainian displaced people?

Short Bio

Inna Supac is a researcher at bicc – Bonn International Centre for Conflict Studies, where her work focuses on war-induced displacement, return migration and social reconstruction, with a regional emphasis on Eastern Europe, particularly Ukraine.

Before joining bicc, she was active in the civil society sector in the Republic of Moldova. Prior to that, Inna spent ten years in politics as a member of parliament. She also participated in the European Union Visitors Programme, designed for young leaders and opinion formers.